This is from a South Korean website and says that, in the event of a North Korean collapse, it is entirely possible that China, rather than South Korea, would absorb North Korea. The article cites a Chinese professor who is also a foreign policy advisor for the Chinese government who says that, "China intends to incorporate North Korea into its military federation and eventually make it a subordinate state." The South Korean article goes on to say that Koreans have little confidence that the U.S. would intervene in a Chinese take over of North Korea and also that South Korea couldn't do much to prevent a Chinese takeover. I have no idea if this is a credible source or not, but its an interesting article.
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I don't think this is a likely scenario, though it is interesting to consider. I think, putting aside the DPRK relationship with China that would "legally" allow the entry of Chinese troops in the event of a collapse, the general perception has always been, among all Koreans, that the peninsula was divided injustly and ideally should be reunified. If anything has been a reoccuring theme in the course so far, is that nationalistic spirit would prevail. Would North Koreans submit to China? Wouldn't they see it as another colonial occupation? On the other side, would the U.S. allow China to intervene, and conversely, would China risk confrontation with the U.S.? Though the article mentions uncertainty surrounding U.S. involvement in such a hypothetical situation, one shouldn't overlook American interests in the Far East. I think the U.S. would want a fully-unified, democratic Korea to put pressure on China, which would remain as the only communist nation in the Far East. Not that I really know much about this, but the article brings up some interesting issues.
Great article. On Thursday, it struck me when Dr. Quinones said that he didn't see a collapse happening but seemed to imply that a coup was very possible in the near future--Especially when one looks at Kim Jong Il's sons. If a coup does happen, it might be the "Shrimp and Whale" scenario all over again as colonial powers compete over Korea.....
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